The moment you read this heading you must be thinking how is someone trying to relate all these issues. I am myself not an economist but a keen observer of the economy. In the next few paragraphs I will explain how these things are affecting you and why you should not quit the Army.
Index of Industrial Production:
When you keep on pushing things under the carpet to make the room look good, eventually, after some time, all that was pushed under the carpet, is bound to start coming out from the other end. That, in a nutshell explains the situation of the Indian economy right now. Keeping an eye on the election the Government always wanted to constantly keep a lid on inflation by increasing the key lending rate, but forgot to pay attention to the effect it might have on the growth of the Indian economy.
The latest growth figures in the economy have been alarming, to say the least. The latest data on Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for January 2008 showed that the overall index grew by 5.3% against an 11.6% growth in January 2007. This slowdown was led by fall in other sectors like mining (1.8% growth against 7.7%), manufacturing (5.9% against 12.3%) and electricity generation (3.3% against 8.3%). Overall IIP for April-January 2007-08 was down at 8.7% against 11.2% recorded in April-January 2006-07.
The stock markets have not taken too kindly to this sobering piece of news. More the market falls and more the economy starts showing signs of a slowdown, one can be sure that FIIs will pack their bags and leave.
Now keeping the above scenario in mind what do you think, that with a poor growth rate and lack of financial support from foreign investors, will the Indian Companies be able to hike the pay packages as they had been doing? Will the recruitment spree continue? Will there be no layoffs? The answer lies in the campus recruitment of institutes like IIMs, which have seen a remarkable fall in the number of companies recruiting this year.
US Recession:
If the US has a cold then the entire world would get the fever. That’s the undeniable truth of today. We may have convinced ourselves that India is not as aligned to the global economy as the rest of the developing countries, yet this has proven to be just a myth. The truth is that India is indeed very much a part of the global economy. We may convince ourselves as much, but there is no denying that India would indeed get affected if the US economy slumps into deeper recession.
So, now that we know that what happens in the US, does matter to us a lot, it becomes easier to see things from a much broader spectrum. Although, the US Federal Reserve along with other banks is trying to pump in liquidity in the system to pull out the US and the world, from getting mired into a situation of inevitable recession but the gloom of a long lasting recession still remains.
I think what will happen to the Indian private sector in case of a recession in US followed by that in India is self explanatory and needs no elaboration.
6th Pay Commission:
The much hyped about, talked about and badly needed sixth pay commission has its recommendations out in the open now. You may be thinking that you have not got your due but mind it; still the people in uniform have got more than the other government employees. A Major (if the recommendations are approved) will get around Rs 40,000/- to Rs 45,000/- per month, benefits and all, extra. Not only that, it gets better as the years keep adding.
It is senseless for the Armed Forces to compare these with friends outside, for in times like those prevalent today, there is job security with the Army, whereas outside recession might hit you anytime. Just try speaking to friends abroad to get a feeler. Also, other perks and privileges added with this salary makes one feel ‘OK’ if not happy.
Devil’s thought:
You do not quit and let others quit if they want. If this be the state there will be no need for selection boards soon, with few officers to choose from and fewer still to carry on. Keep doing your work and keep enjoying the upward move.